When Is the Right Time to Buy? - Holding Off on the Latest Gadget

It's happened to everyone... that gut-wrenching, horrifying feeling you get when the shiny new gadget you JUST bought a month ago drops in price or is replaced by something better. Look at iPhone owners. You can't tell me those that picked up 8GB iPhones at $599 didn't feel a bit used when Apple lowered the price to $399 only 2 months after it was launched. Sure, that $100 in-store credit helped soften the blow, but no doubt everyone probably wishes they had waited those few months before buying.

It's the story of the early gadget adopter, and those on the cutting edge of technology often get bum deals and beat up on their electronic purchases. I usually try to purchase with a bit of caution, but even I still get taken from time to time. It wasn't all that long ago I picked up a new Premium XBOX 360, only to discover that not long after they'd put out a new "Elite" model, and even upgrade the premium version to include an HDMI connector. What can I do? Nothing.

Kelli B. Grant from the Wall Street Journal recently wrote a piece called "When to Hold Off on Latest Gadget," which gives some advice on how long you should wait to purchase certain devices to ensure you're getting the best deal. No doubt her advice will save you money, but it won't necessarily guide you to electronic bliss. Since I don't agree with everything she said, here's my advice for saving money while making sure you get great technology at a good price.

How Long Do I Wait Before Buying?

Computers

Kelli's advice: "Computers: Wait as long as you can -- even longer than a year. Technology advances in computers are so rapid these days that even a discounted, year-old "obsolete" model is still pretty darn fantastic..."

My advice: You won't get too many arguments from me on this point. The guts in the modern day computers move soooo quickly that any purchase quickly becomes obsolete. However, keep in mind what you want to purchase a computer for. If you want the latest gaming rig, consider stepping up to something newer than 1 year old to make sure you're getting the newer line of PC graphics cards, more memory, and higher processor clock speeds. If you want basic photo editing, e-mail, Internet, and Office apps, then the older crop of PCs are usually more than enough.

For the regular PC users, find what I call the "point of little return". Computers have a certain point in the pricing scheme where a lot more money invested yields little return in performance. This typically happens toward the upper end of the spectrum. At the lower end, little investments in money can yield huge improvements in what you get. Weigh each model carefully, and take advantage of in-store and manufacturer's mail-in rebates as much as you can.

Digital Cameras

Kelli's advice: "Digital Cameras: Wait one year. Digital cameras are still a niche market, which means prices are slow to drop"

My advice: I have a problem with anyone that says digital cameras are still a niche market (in this case she turned to CNET's Brian Cooley for guidance). I find that statement odd, particularly as major companies like Nikon and Kodak are practically leaving the film alternative behind. When I walk into any store, there's and endless sea of point-and-shoot and D-SLR digital cameras for sale, and 2 or 3 film alternatives... if any at all. Plus, with digital cameras (albeit crappy ones) being integrated into nearly all cellular devices, I just don't buy into how digital is a "niche market."

So does it make sense to wait one year? Kelli argues that advancements in digital cameras are slow, and often the new models only add on minor improvements from model year to model year. This is true, particularly in the mid-range camera market where more megapixels are becoming meaningless (read Chris Miller's: "The Megapixel Myth" for more). At the low end of the spectrum, cameras are getting a hefty helping of improvements year after year, so this trend is likely to bottom out at some point.

So what's a consumer to do? What's odd is that in some cases (usually in the compact digital camera market), buying last year's mid-range model could actually be MORE expensive than buying this year's newer low end model. As I said above, technology is trickling down to the low end spectrum pretty quickly. It may actually be a better value to not buy last year's model on clearance, but instead pick up this year's slightly lower end camera. If you're looking for a meatier camera in the mid-high range, Kelli's advice will probably serve you best.

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray

Kelli's advice: "High-Definition Video: Wait until the dust settles."

My advice: In the war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, I agree with Kelli. This format war should never have happened, and so far has been awful for the consumer. If you remember anything about VHS vs. Beta, take the safe route and don't place a bet. Though if you REALLY want to pick one, tie in that purchase with one of the new gaming consoles from Microsoft or Sony. The PS3 and XBOX 360 with add-on HD-DVD drive is a way to play in the HD format war, but still have a useful gaming console if you pick wrong.

Software

Kelli's advice: "Software: Wait one month."

Kelli agues that software is buggy the first month of release, and consumers should wait until the first round of patches before taking the plunge.

My advice: I'm not sure I follow where she's going here. Really, a few bugs doesn't necessarily mean non-functional. In most cases, there won't be any major price drops in the first month anyway, so what's the point of waiting if a particular piece of software will do something you need? Go for it, but be sure to keep an eye out for free patches and updates. No waiting, same price, same result in the end.

Televisions

Kelli's advice: "Televisions: Wait one year."

Here she makes two points: HD content hasn't caught up with the latest technology (nothing more specific than that unfortunately, but I'm curious to what she means here), and prices are dropping 25% to 30% annually.

My advice: First and foremost, I treat the TV market with a similar approach that I do for digital cameras. Year after year, technology in the more expensive sets will trickle down the line, allowing you to spend less on a lower end TV with much of the same benefits as last year's better model. So if you're eyeing a TV today, you can pick up nearly the same thing next year lower in the line, typically for less than what this year's closeout will cost you... often with other improvements.

However, there are cases where keeping up with technology can yeild more fruit even if you end up spending a little more. Remember a TV is a long term investment, and sometimes being at the front of technology today keeps you in the game longer than last year's closeout.

I'm in the process of rewriting/updating my guide to choosing a TV, and will cover this topic in great detail in the weeks ahead. Stay tuned...

Videogame Systems

Kelli's advice: "Videogame Systems: Wait for cutting-edge videogames to be released. - ...it takes time for the videogame makers to play catch-up and incorporate the new capabilities into their games. Meanwhile, prices for the consoles tend to drop after a year or so on the market."

My advice: This is probably the most ridiculous argument I read, and have no choice but to totally disagree with her.

Here's what I will agree with: it IS the games that drive consoles. Without compelling games, home video game systems are nothing more than a big paperweight. Also, it DOES take time for game developers to truly tap in to the full potential of new hardware. Does that mean you should wait until every ounce of power is tapped from a console before taking the plunge? Absolutely not.

I would simply re-write this statement to read, "Wait for a game you want to play to be released." Video games don't have to tap the full potential of a console in order to provide a quality gaming experience. For example, those who bought a Wii on day one have been treated to games like Wii sports, which have provided hours of entertainment to new owners. For 360 folk like me, I've been enjoying EA Fight Night Round 3 and Call of Duty 2 (not exclusive, but certainly improved for the new hardware) in HD for quite some time, not to mention other early release titles exclusive to the 360 like Viva Pinata and Table Tennis.

Each game, regardless of technical merit, can provide hours of fun and a rewarding gaming experience. Don't let the glitz and glam of graphics quality and rumble support keep you from having a good time. True, gaming console prices do drop over time, but typcially not much (if at all) within the first year.

If it takes a year to release games you want to play, then wait. If it takes two, wait two. However, if games you are dying to play are available on day one, why deprive yourself the opportunity for great entertainment?

Wrapping Up

As you can see, electronic happiness isn't always about getting the greatest price. It's important for most of us not to overpay for devices, and if you're not careful you can get burned. Kelli's advice, for the most part, will help you purchase on the careful side, but doesn't guarantee you'll make the smartest decision. I hope my advice, in conjunction with hers, will help everyone get a little more out of your gear.

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Comments

Consumers are really smart buyers and although manufacturers have already created great functions for their digital cameras, consumers are still looking value for their money. Prices may still vary, but with more and more conscious buyers out there, they will eventually get their digital camera needs.

 

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